Progressive Blackjack Betting Strategy
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*Betting Strategy For Blackjack
*Progressive Blackjack Betting Strategy 2 1 2
*Blackjack Betting System
Image Source: youtube.com
Blackjack Betting Strategies are quite popular, especially since the game has been featured in hit movies likeRain Man, 21 and The Hangover.
The Paroli 3 Betting System is a progressive betting strategy based off the very old but not often used (nor heard of) Paroli Betting System. The Paroli 3 is designed for short term high gains play with low risk of ruin. In fact; you can actually per-calculate your maximum loss based on the number of hands you plan to play.
No matter what the game, there is one universal rule; if the casino spreads the game, someone has developed the “perfect” betting strategy.
Roulette strategies are perhaps the most prominent as roulette strategies and systems have been offered for sale for centuries.
As a dealer and a player, I have been able to see and try many of the most famous Blackjack Betting Strategies.
Blackjack strategies don’t change around the world but it is interesting to see different perspectives. A good blackjack resource for Canadians is CanadianCasinos.ca.Play Blackjack Live Online
*The 1-3-2-6 system is relatively straight-forward – especially if you have any experience using other betting or card-counting systems. Here’s how this works: Place an even-money bet. For example, place a bet on black/red or even/odd in roulette. For the following steps, we’re going to say we made a $5 bet.
*The Paroli strategy is a blackjack progressive betting system that takes advantage of winning streaks. Before playing, you’ll need to choose a number of wins in the progression. Let’s say your winning streak will start at three. Here is an example scenario.
*Progressive betting systems, like yours, will turn a good session into a great one without the risk of catastrophic loss as with regressive systems like the Martingale. However progressive systems will turn a choppy neutral session into a bad one. Consider what would happen if you alternated between a win and a loss the entire session.
*Winning Progressive Blackjack Side Bets You can win your side bet even if the dealer beats you. All you have to do is place your real money wager before the game starts and land a qualifying card combination. When playing online progressive blackjack, players will need to land 4 suited aces in a row starting from the first card in their hand.
Want to try playing blackjack online for real money? We recommened playing with live dealers at Bovada casino (US friendly)The Two Best Systems
There are two strategies that every player should use every time they take a seat at or swim up to a blackjack table.Play to Have Fun
Napoleon was a fan of Vingt-un (blackjack) near the start of the 19th century. For more than two centuries, blackjack has grown in popularity to become the most popular casino table game.Mathematicians have analyzed the game, hundreds of books have been written about it, and a number of myths and legends have been created.
Earning a place in the Blackjack Hall of Fame at the Barona Casino in California is the only honorary award for players of any casino table game. There is a reason that blackjack has remained popular for a couple of centuries; it’s fun! There are many varieties of blackjack. Mr. Green offers a great selection of 15 blackjack games by 6 software providers, including Double Exposure Blackjack Professional Series by Net Entertainment, VIP Blackjack by Extreme Live Gaming, and 6-in-1 Blackjack by Felt.
Spin Palace offers a remarkable amount of blackjack games. There are over 40 blackjack games in total on offer. They also offer practice play which is perfect for sharpening your blackjack skills before you start playing for real money. Most of their games are developed by Microgaming which are very popular in English speaking countries like Australia, New Zealand, UK and Canada.
Yes, the game has a really low house edge, which makes it appealing, but it is a very social game, so in many cases, the table wins or loses as a group. This builds comradery and makes it fairly common for players to talk with one another. The social aspect of the game is a very important one to most players.Bet the Right Amount
Image Source: youtube.com
Set up a bankroll before you go to the table. This is your total stake.
As has been mentioned numerous times, blackjack is supposed to be fun. Playing with money you can’t afford to lose (what dealers and players call “scared money”) practically guarantees you won’t enjoy the game.
It is fairly easy to find table limits to fit most bankrolls.The Martingale – Blackjack Betting Strategies
Image Source: pokerbankrollblog.com
The Martingale system originated in 18th century France and is one of the oldest systems around. The original theory was used to prove that someone with infinite wealth could always avoid a loss in even money bets by doubling the best after each loss. Most likely the first casino game where the Martingale system was touted was roulette, but it can also be used in other areas, such as in stock market trading.
You will often see players use the Martingale system at the blackjack table, doubling their wager after each loss. In theory, this strategy sounds solid. However, blackjack is not an even money game. And additionally, players will occasionally run into a bad streak of cards. At a $5 table using the Martingale system if you lose 8 hands in a row, you will be wagering $1280 on your next hand, so unless you are a legendary high-roller, you are probably better off taking the $5 loss.2-1-2 (Manhattan) Strategy – Blackjack Betting Strategies
One of the common laments one hears from players is the one where they were “way ahead” but gave it all back. These players are the same ones that usually talk about “playing with ‘house’ money.”
Here is a fact: Once the chips are in your stack, they are your chips, not the house’s.
The second most common lament you will hear is a player talking about missing out on a hot streak. The 2-1-2 strategy helps address both.
First, there is no mathematical foundation for “hot” or “cold” streaks at the blackjack table. Mathematicians will tell you (truthfully) that there is no such phenomenon. Blackjack players know they exist.
As a player you want to capitalize on a good run of cards and this strategy has some merits. Start with a 2 unit bet. If you win you reduce the bet to one unit. If you win that bet you increase to 3 units. Once the dealer wins you go back to your original 2 unit bet.
A run of 10 hands could look like this:
Wager Result +/-
*2 W +2
*1 W +3
*2 W +5
*3 W +8
*4 L +4
*2 W +6
*1 L +5
*2 W +7
*3 W +10
*4 L +6
With the 2-1-2 strategy, players will win a bit more with a hot run yet not sacrifice all of their winnings. Poker theme party ideas.Oscar’s System – Blackjack Betting Strategies
Oscar’s System was proposed in the 1960’s in a book by mathematician Dr. Allan Wilson. It is a fairly decent system. The goal of the strategy is to win exactly one unit per series.
The player starts a series by betting one unit. After a win, the player adds a unit; after a loss, the next bet is exactly the same as the previous one. That’s it.
Here are two examples:
Wager Result +/-
*1 L -1
*1 L -2
*1 W -1
*2 W +1
Series complete
Wager Result +/-
*1 L -1
*1 L -2
*1 L -3
*1 W -2
*2 L -4
*2 W -2
*3 W +1
Series complete.Playing Multiple Spots
Many players feel that playing multiple hands increases their odds of winning. Playing multiple spots can be exciting, but it does absolutely nothing to increase your win rate.
Most of these systems fall under the heading of progressive bets. While these are among the most common, they are by no means the only strategies out there. It is perfectly fine to sit at the table and make the exact same wager every hand. While this strategy is a bit boring for me, if it works for you that is what counts. There is absolutely nothing wrong with taking out a deck of cards and developing your own strategy as well.Blackjack Betting Systems in the Long RunBetting Strategy For Blackjack
Ok so we’ve covered the popular blackjack betting systems here and highlighted how they are used but are any of them really useful in the long run? The answer is a resounding NO (this article goes into great depth as to why).
While you might make great short term wins, any betting system will not be a formula for success in the long term. To truly gain an advantage against the casino you must start with learning basic strategy and then moving to card counting.
There are plenty of resources to get started. We recommend:
*BlackjackInfo’s Blackjack School – A comprehensive free resource that covers both basic strategy and card counting principles.
*Blackjack Apprenticeship – Run by Colin Jones, a professional counter who featured in the blackjack documentary Holy Rollers, this site provides a paid course offering video training material, private coaching and more.
*WizardofOdds – The wizard has some great strategy charts but only for 4-8 decks. If you need more customized charts then BlackjackInfo has a good strategy chart builder.
*HolyMolyCasinos.com – Offers a how to guide on the rules and how to play blackjack as well as other popular casino games.Members FeedbackWhat is the value of the blackjack system called ’Mastering the Flow?’ It’s marketed via an infomercial, and the website is www.changetheodds.com. It claims not to be a counting system, yet the vague description of the system that the website gives makes it sound like counting to me. The claims are pretty out-there: ’Win every time’ etc. I count cards (using the KO PREFERRED), and understand that this new ’system’ has to be either a simplistic count strategy, or a scam. Would you look into it for us, the gullible public?
I had a look at the web site and also found what little he says about the theory behind his system makes it sound like card counting. However I’m deeply skeptical of anything that claims to ’blow old fashioned card counting away.’ I think we can file this under ’If it sounds too good to be true is probably is.’
Update: The web site in question vanished sometime after the publication of this question.Any tips on money management in blackjack? I usually double after a win, go back to my original bet after three wins (or any loss), and play the game according to the book. I usually do pretty well, but it’s slow and steady and not very exciting. Any tips?
I don’t put a lot of emphasis on betting systems. In the long run you will lose the same percentage of money bet no matter what system you use. So my advice is use a system that maximizes the fun of the game.In blackjack, do you improve your chances by playing two hands at once for x each, versus 1 hand at a time for 2x? If the odds are better, how much better?
The simple answer is no, it neither helps you nor hurts you. However, you will have less bankroll variance by betting two hands of x as opposed to one of 2x. Card counters are an exception to the simple no, they may play multiple hands to draw more cards out of a deck rich in good cards, thus improving their odds.Love your site. I’ve even taken your blackjack data and made it into a full-color pocket-sized page that I carry in my briefcase for those unexpected trips to Vegas. I’ve memorized and follow your rules and generally do well (but of course there are times when I lose.) Two questions, you said in a previous answer that you don’t cap your winnings. How do you determine when to stop? When have you ’won enough’ so you avoid regression toward the mean and lose it back?
Second question, does the number of hits one takes effect the outcome? For example, if I have five cards that total 15 against a dealer’s 10, am I pressing my luck by taking a sixth card? In other words, are the odds of busting on a 5-card 15 the same as busting on a 2-card 15?
Thank for the compliment and I’m happy to help your bankroll last longer. When I gamble for fun I keep playing until it isn’t fun any longer. Usually the fun ends when I have lost too much or have played too long. With the ups and downs of blackjack it takes hundreds of hours before regression toward the mean will cause actual results to look like expected results. Furthermore, the player who puts a conservative cap on their winnings is never going to experience the fun of a long hot winning streak. Keep in mind this is just what works for me. You should do what you are comfortable with. Everything I have to say about money management can be summarized by the following two rules (1) don’t gamble with money you can’t afford to lose, and (2) don’t gamble if it isn’t fun.
Regarding your second question, there is something to be said about the composition of a hand. The fewer the decks the more this is true. My blackjack appendix 3A and appendix 3B show the exceptions to single- and double-deck blackjack, based on the composition of the hand. These appendices show that the more cards that are in your hand the more inclined you should be to stand. Regarding your 15 against a 10 example, there are two situations in single deck blackjack where you should stand when the 15 is composed of 5 cards, A+A+A+6+6 and A+A+3+5+5. Note that in both of these situations either two fives or two sixes have left the deck which are the two most helpful cards for the player. The two situations where you should be the most inclined to stand if you have a multiple card hand are 16 against a 10 and a 12 against a 3.Do you mean to tell me that man has designed a way to put three million transistors on a single chip (microprocessor) the size of a finger nail, and we don’t have a way to beat a 50/50 even money game bet. I find that to be unbelievable, besides I found that computer simulations are definitely not the same as live world action. Also why don’t casinos introduce video blackjack to thwart the card counters and get rid of dealers?
I have said numerous times that there is no long-term way to beat a game with a house edge. If there were a true 50/50 game with no house edge it would be impossible to guarantee beating or losing to it under real world conditions. The results always approach the house edge in the long-term. It is not just computer simulations that back this up but the fundamental laws of probability.
About video blackjack, that may be the way of the future. I have seen fully electronic tables with video display at the World Gaming Expo. I have also seen tables that with cameras can track every bet and every play each player makes. This enables the house to accurately comp players and alert them to card counters. These tables look and feel like any other blackjack table, so you card counters may be out of business if these tables are successful.Have you ever heard of the Ken Fuchs progression. If so, would you please e-mail me or post the details on your site.
I’m not familiar with it. Ken Fuchs co-wrote Knock-Out Blackjack so he can’t be all bad. However I just hear the word progression and I’m immediately skeptical.I’ve got a question about ’progressive betting’ (e.g. ’Another Experiment’, Player 2 on your Betting Strategies page). Obviously in normal bj play you experience streaks of wins and loses. Where is the faulty logic in ’minimize your losing streaks by resetting at 1 unit, and increase your winning streaks by raising 1 unit after each win?’ FYI, I actually play a little variation of that: 15, 30, 45, 50, 75, 100, 125, etc..Thanks for you time. And, please don’t try to humiliate me like Ann {what’s-her-name} on The Weakest Link :-) I really love your site!!! Thanks for all of the great info.
Progressive betting systems, like yours, will turn a good session into a great one without the risk of catastrophic loss as with regressive systems like the Martingale. However progressive systems will turn a choppy neutral session into a bad one. Consider what would happen if you alternated between a win and a loss the entire session. The wins would all be at $15 and the losses at $30. Funny you should mention the ’Weakest Link.’ I tried out for that show during the summer and didn’t make it. It is probably just as well because I’m not that witty in real life and doubt I could come up with a good rejoinder to one of Ann’s jabs.I play the negative system in black jack meaning I double every time I lose until I Win. I wanted to what the odds are of losing 4,5,6,7,8,9 hands in a row? How many hands should I expect to play till I lost 8 hands which is my stopping point?
The name for this system is the Martingale. Ignoring ties the probability of a new loss for a hand of blackjack is 52.51%. So the probability of losing 8 in a row is .52518 = 1 in 173.Can You tell me the expected return in Black Jack if a player wagers all his money in one hand and not having money for split’s or double’s. Thank You.
If you can’t double or split that adds 1.9% to whatever the house edge is otherwise. This just goes to show that you should always have double or split money available if you need it.I’ve been playing blackjack for quite awhile using basic strategy, mostly betting an even unit each hand. Occasionally I will increase the bet because I ’feel’ like I am going to win the next one. I would think that just about all recreational players bet on feel once in a while at least. I was reading through some of your past Ask the Wizard columns and saw your calculation of the probability of a string of losses in the August 4, 2002 Column. You know those emotional thoughts that pop in head while gambling (well maybe not your head), ’I’m due for a win!’
That column seemed to put the mathematics to that ’feeling’ a player can get. In that columns’ example of a player losing 8 consecutive hands of blackjack the odds were (.5251^8 or about 1 in 173). My question though is what does that really mean? Is it that when I sit down at the table, 1 out of my next 173 playing sessions I can expect to have an 8 hand losing streak? Or does it mean that on any given loss it is a 1 in 173 chance that it was the first of 8 losses coming my way?
I know, I know, its some sort of divine intervention betting system I am talking about and no betting system affects the house edge. I’m still curious though. Besides every once in awhile throwing down a bigger bet just adds to the excitement and for some reason it seems logical that if you have lost a string of hands you are ’due’ for a win.
I have no problem with increasing your bet when you get a lucky feeling. What is important is that you play your cards right. Unless you are counting cards you have the free will to bet as much as you want. As I always say all betting systems are equally worthless so flying by the seat of your pants is just as good as flat betting over the long term. When I said the probability of losing 8 hands in a row is 1 in 173 I meant that starting with the next hand the probability of losing 8 in a row is 1 in 173. The chances
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*Betting Strategy For Blackjack
*Progressive Blackjack Betting Strategy 2 1 2
*Blackjack Betting System
Image Source: youtube.com
Blackjack Betting Strategies are quite popular, especially since the game has been featured in hit movies likeRain Man, 21 and The Hangover.
The Paroli 3 Betting System is a progressive betting strategy based off the very old but not often used (nor heard of) Paroli Betting System. The Paroli 3 is designed for short term high gains play with low risk of ruin. In fact; you can actually per-calculate your maximum loss based on the number of hands you plan to play.
No matter what the game, there is one universal rule; if the casino spreads the game, someone has developed the “perfect” betting strategy.
Roulette strategies are perhaps the most prominent as roulette strategies and systems have been offered for sale for centuries.
As a dealer and a player, I have been able to see and try many of the most famous Blackjack Betting Strategies.
Blackjack strategies don’t change around the world but it is interesting to see different perspectives. A good blackjack resource for Canadians is CanadianCasinos.ca.Play Blackjack Live Online
*The 1-3-2-6 system is relatively straight-forward – especially if you have any experience using other betting or card-counting systems. Here’s how this works: Place an even-money bet. For example, place a bet on black/red or even/odd in roulette. For the following steps, we’re going to say we made a $5 bet.
*The Paroli strategy is a blackjack progressive betting system that takes advantage of winning streaks. Before playing, you’ll need to choose a number of wins in the progression. Let’s say your winning streak will start at three. Here is an example scenario.
*Progressive betting systems, like yours, will turn a good session into a great one without the risk of catastrophic loss as with regressive systems like the Martingale. However progressive systems will turn a choppy neutral session into a bad one. Consider what would happen if you alternated between a win and a loss the entire session.
*Winning Progressive Blackjack Side Bets You can win your side bet even if the dealer beats you. All you have to do is place your real money wager before the game starts and land a qualifying card combination. When playing online progressive blackjack, players will need to land 4 suited aces in a row starting from the first card in their hand.
Want to try playing blackjack online for real money? We recommened playing with live dealers at Bovada casino (US friendly)The Two Best Systems
There are two strategies that every player should use every time they take a seat at or swim up to a blackjack table.Play to Have Fun
Napoleon was a fan of Vingt-un (blackjack) near the start of the 19th century. For more than two centuries, blackjack has grown in popularity to become the most popular casino table game.Mathematicians have analyzed the game, hundreds of books have been written about it, and a number of myths and legends have been created.
Earning a place in the Blackjack Hall of Fame at the Barona Casino in California is the only honorary award for players of any casino table game. There is a reason that blackjack has remained popular for a couple of centuries; it’s fun! There are many varieties of blackjack. Mr. Green offers a great selection of 15 blackjack games by 6 software providers, including Double Exposure Blackjack Professional Series by Net Entertainment, VIP Blackjack by Extreme Live Gaming, and 6-in-1 Blackjack by Felt.
Spin Palace offers a remarkable amount of blackjack games. There are over 40 blackjack games in total on offer. They also offer practice play which is perfect for sharpening your blackjack skills before you start playing for real money. Most of their games are developed by Microgaming which are very popular in English speaking countries like Australia, New Zealand, UK and Canada.
Yes, the game has a really low house edge, which makes it appealing, but it is a very social game, so in many cases, the table wins or loses as a group. This builds comradery and makes it fairly common for players to talk with one another. The social aspect of the game is a very important one to most players.Bet the Right Amount
Image Source: youtube.com
Set up a bankroll before you go to the table. This is your total stake.
As has been mentioned numerous times, blackjack is supposed to be fun. Playing with money you can’t afford to lose (what dealers and players call “scared money”) practically guarantees you won’t enjoy the game.
It is fairly easy to find table limits to fit most bankrolls.The Martingale – Blackjack Betting Strategies
Image Source: pokerbankrollblog.com
The Martingale system originated in 18th century France and is one of the oldest systems around. The original theory was used to prove that someone with infinite wealth could always avoid a loss in even money bets by doubling the best after each loss. Most likely the first casino game where the Martingale system was touted was roulette, but it can also be used in other areas, such as in stock market trading.
You will often see players use the Martingale system at the blackjack table, doubling their wager after each loss. In theory, this strategy sounds solid. However, blackjack is not an even money game. And additionally, players will occasionally run into a bad streak of cards. At a $5 table using the Martingale system if you lose 8 hands in a row, you will be wagering $1280 on your next hand, so unless you are a legendary high-roller, you are probably better off taking the $5 loss.2-1-2 (Manhattan) Strategy – Blackjack Betting Strategies
One of the common laments one hears from players is the one where they were “way ahead” but gave it all back. These players are the same ones that usually talk about “playing with ‘house’ money.”
Here is a fact: Once the chips are in your stack, they are your chips, not the house’s.
The second most common lament you will hear is a player talking about missing out on a hot streak. The 2-1-2 strategy helps address both.
First, there is no mathematical foundation for “hot” or “cold” streaks at the blackjack table. Mathematicians will tell you (truthfully) that there is no such phenomenon. Blackjack players know they exist.
As a player you want to capitalize on a good run of cards and this strategy has some merits. Start with a 2 unit bet. If you win you reduce the bet to one unit. If you win that bet you increase to 3 units. Once the dealer wins you go back to your original 2 unit bet.
A run of 10 hands could look like this:
Wager Result +/-
*2 W +2
*1 W +3
*2 W +5
*3 W +8
*4 L +4
*2 W +6
*1 L +5
*2 W +7
*3 W +10
*4 L +6
With the 2-1-2 strategy, players will win a bit more with a hot run yet not sacrifice all of their winnings. Poker theme party ideas.Oscar’s System – Blackjack Betting Strategies
Oscar’s System was proposed in the 1960’s in a book by mathematician Dr. Allan Wilson. It is a fairly decent system. The goal of the strategy is to win exactly one unit per series.
The player starts a series by betting one unit. After a win, the player adds a unit; after a loss, the next bet is exactly the same as the previous one. That’s it.
Here are two examples:
Wager Result +/-
*1 L -1
*1 L -2
*1 W -1
*2 W +1
Series complete
Wager Result +/-
*1 L -1
*1 L -2
*1 L -3
*1 W -2
*2 L -4
*2 W -2
*3 W +1
Series complete.Playing Multiple Spots
Many players feel that playing multiple hands increases their odds of winning. Playing multiple spots can be exciting, but it does absolutely nothing to increase your win rate.
Most of these systems fall under the heading of progressive bets. While these are among the most common, they are by no means the only strategies out there. It is perfectly fine to sit at the table and make the exact same wager every hand. While this strategy is a bit boring for me, if it works for you that is what counts. There is absolutely nothing wrong with taking out a deck of cards and developing your own strategy as well.Blackjack Betting Systems in the Long RunBetting Strategy For Blackjack
Ok so we’ve covered the popular blackjack betting systems here and highlighted how they are used but are any of them really useful in the long run? The answer is a resounding NO (this article goes into great depth as to why).
While you might make great short term wins, any betting system will not be a formula for success in the long term. To truly gain an advantage against the casino you must start with learning basic strategy and then moving to card counting.
There are plenty of resources to get started. We recommend:
*BlackjackInfo’s Blackjack School – A comprehensive free resource that covers both basic strategy and card counting principles.
*Blackjack Apprenticeship – Run by Colin Jones, a professional counter who featured in the blackjack documentary Holy Rollers, this site provides a paid course offering video training material, private coaching and more.
*WizardofOdds – The wizard has some great strategy charts but only for 4-8 decks. If you need more customized charts then BlackjackInfo has a good strategy chart builder.
*HolyMolyCasinos.com – Offers a how to guide on the rules and how to play blackjack as well as other popular casino games.Members FeedbackWhat is the value of the blackjack system called ’Mastering the Flow?’ It’s marketed via an infomercial, and the website is www.changetheodds.com. It claims not to be a counting system, yet the vague description of the system that the website gives makes it sound like counting to me. The claims are pretty out-there: ’Win every time’ etc. I count cards (using the KO PREFERRED), and understand that this new ’system’ has to be either a simplistic count strategy, or a scam. Would you look into it for us, the gullible public?
I had a look at the web site and also found what little he says about the theory behind his system makes it sound like card counting. However I’m deeply skeptical of anything that claims to ’blow old fashioned card counting away.’ I think we can file this under ’If it sounds too good to be true is probably is.’
Update: The web site in question vanished sometime after the publication of this question.Any tips on money management in blackjack? I usually double after a win, go back to my original bet after three wins (or any loss), and play the game according to the book. I usually do pretty well, but it’s slow and steady and not very exciting. Any tips?
I don’t put a lot of emphasis on betting systems. In the long run you will lose the same percentage of money bet no matter what system you use. So my advice is use a system that maximizes the fun of the game.In blackjack, do you improve your chances by playing two hands at once for x each, versus 1 hand at a time for 2x? If the odds are better, how much better?
The simple answer is no, it neither helps you nor hurts you. However, you will have less bankroll variance by betting two hands of x as opposed to one of 2x. Card counters are an exception to the simple no, they may play multiple hands to draw more cards out of a deck rich in good cards, thus improving their odds.Love your site. I’ve even taken your blackjack data and made it into a full-color pocket-sized page that I carry in my briefcase for those unexpected trips to Vegas. I’ve memorized and follow your rules and generally do well (but of course there are times when I lose.) Two questions, you said in a previous answer that you don’t cap your winnings. How do you determine when to stop? When have you ’won enough’ so you avoid regression toward the mean and lose it back?
Second question, does the number of hits one takes effect the outcome? For example, if I have five cards that total 15 against a dealer’s 10, am I pressing my luck by taking a sixth card? In other words, are the odds of busting on a 5-card 15 the same as busting on a 2-card 15?
Thank for the compliment and I’m happy to help your bankroll last longer. When I gamble for fun I keep playing until it isn’t fun any longer. Usually the fun ends when I have lost too much or have played too long. With the ups and downs of blackjack it takes hundreds of hours before regression toward the mean will cause actual results to look like expected results. Furthermore, the player who puts a conservative cap on their winnings is never going to experience the fun of a long hot winning streak. Keep in mind this is just what works for me. You should do what you are comfortable with. Everything I have to say about money management can be summarized by the following two rules (1) don’t gamble with money you can’t afford to lose, and (2) don’t gamble if it isn’t fun.
Regarding your second question, there is something to be said about the composition of a hand. The fewer the decks the more this is true. My blackjack appendix 3A and appendix 3B show the exceptions to single- and double-deck blackjack, based on the composition of the hand. These appendices show that the more cards that are in your hand the more inclined you should be to stand. Regarding your 15 against a 10 example, there are two situations in single deck blackjack where you should stand when the 15 is composed of 5 cards, A+A+A+6+6 and A+A+3+5+5. Note that in both of these situations either two fives or two sixes have left the deck which are the two most helpful cards for the player. The two situations where you should be the most inclined to stand if you have a multiple card hand are 16 against a 10 and a 12 against a 3.Do you mean to tell me that man has designed a way to put three million transistors on a single chip (microprocessor) the size of a finger nail, and we don’t have a way to beat a 50/50 even money game bet. I find that to be unbelievable, besides I found that computer simulations are definitely not the same as live world action. Also why don’t casinos introduce video blackjack to thwart the card counters and get rid of dealers?
I have said numerous times that there is no long-term way to beat a game with a house edge. If there were a true 50/50 game with no house edge it would be impossible to guarantee beating or losing to it under real world conditions. The results always approach the house edge in the long-term. It is not just computer simulations that back this up but the fundamental laws of probability.
About video blackjack, that may be the way of the future. I have seen fully electronic tables with video display at the World Gaming Expo. I have also seen tables that with cameras can track every bet and every play each player makes. This enables the house to accurately comp players and alert them to card counters. These tables look and feel like any other blackjack table, so you card counters may be out of business if these tables are successful.Have you ever heard of the Ken Fuchs progression. If so, would you please e-mail me or post the details on your site.
I’m not familiar with it. Ken Fuchs co-wrote Knock-Out Blackjack so he can’t be all bad. However I just hear the word progression and I’m immediately skeptical.I’ve got a question about ’progressive betting’ (e.g. ’Another Experiment’, Player 2 on your Betting Strategies page). Obviously in normal bj play you experience streaks of wins and loses. Where is the faulty logic in ’minimize your losing streaks by resetting at 1 unit, and increase your winning streaks by raising 1 unit after each win?’ FYI, I actually play a little variation of that: 15, 30, 45, 50, 75, 100, 125, etc..Thanks for you time. And, please don’t try to humiliate me like Ann {what’s-her-name} on The Weakest Link :-) I really love your site!!! Thanks for all of the great info.
Progressive betting systems, like yours, will turn a good session into a great one without the risk of catastrophic loss as with regressive systems like the Martingale. However progressive systems will turn a choppy neutral session into a bad one. Consider what would happen if you alternated between a win and a loss the entire session. The wins would all be at $15 and the losses at $30. Funny you should mention the ’Weakest Link.’ I tried out for that show during the summer and didn’t make it. It is probably just as well because I’m not that witty in real life and doubt I could come up with a good rejoinder to one of Ann’s jabs.I play the negative system in black jack meaning I double every time I lose until I Win. I wanted to what the odds are of losing 4,5,6,7,8,9 hands in a row? How many hands should I expect to play till I lost 8 hands which is my stopping point?
The name for this system is the Martingale. Ignoring ties the probability of a new loss for a hand of blackjack is 52.51%. So the probability of losing 8 in a row is .52518 = 1 in 173.Can You tell me the expected return in Black Jack if a player wagers all his money in one hand and not having money for split’s or double’s. Thank You.
If you can’t double or split that adds 1.9% to whatever the house edge is otherwise. This just goes to show that you should always have double or split money available if you need it.I’ve been playing blackjack for quite awhile using basic strategy, mostly betting an even unit each hand. Occasionally I will increase the bet because I ’feel’ like I am going to win the next one. I would think that just about all recreational players bet on feel once in a while at least. I was reading through some of your past Ask the Wizard columns and saw your calculation of the probability of a string of losses in the August 4, 2002 Column. You know those emotional thoughts that pop in head while gambling (well maybe not your head), ’I’m due for a win!’
That column seemed to put the mathematics to that ’feeling’ a player can get. In that columns’ example of a player losing 8 consecutive hands of blackjack the odds were (.5251^8 or about 1 in 173). My question though is what does that really mean? Is it that when I sit down at the table, 1 out of my next 173 playing sessions I can expect to have an 8 hand losing streak? Or does it mean that on any given loss it is a 1 in 173 chance that it was the first of 8 losses coming my way?
I know, I know, its some sort of divine intervention betting system I am talking about and no betting system affects the house edge. I’m still curious though. Besides every once in awhile throwing down a bigger bet just adds to the excitement and for some reason it seems logical that if you have lost a string of hands you are ’due’ for a win.
I have no problem with increasing your bet when you get a lucky feeling. What is important is that you play your cards right. Unless you are counting cards you have the free will to bet as much as you want. As I always say all betting systems are equally worthless so flying by the seat of your pants is just as good as flat betting over the long term. When I said the probability of losing 8 hands in a row is 1 in 173 I meant that starting with the next hand the probability of losing 8 in a row is 1 in 173. The chances
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